Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
fallen latter market question sales seems slowing summer trend weak
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.
consumer decline given growth huge income seem slowing
Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.
absence again certain chance complete current economy evidence evident fed given meaningful pressure rates rise sensitive slowing
Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.
core damage ease economy fed inflation slowing succeeds
If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
guess ignoring market moment moving numbers seem slow supporting
My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
across argue awful evidence level months nearer sales slowing straight tells tempting weather
It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,
certainly economy report serious slowing suggest
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.
core few finished next prices slow strongly
This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
claims climb layoffs months pattern recent similar slow sudden
The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,