Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
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As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.
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There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
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The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
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With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
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We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
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The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
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The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.