Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
ability auto car due few higher hold increasing labor lead means numbers recently sales seen stronger together unit
Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers like those seen recently would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.
ability auto car due few higher hold increasing labor lead means sales seen stronger together unit
Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers, like those seen recently, would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.
above appears claims continuing higher last layoffs level means per rapid time trend
It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.
call early july means might output report slump stability worst
It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
auto fall far means next numbers sales unit
Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.
bit both cautious chairman clear fed knows means policy recovery steer views wants
There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,