Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bad data future inflation margins news
(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
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If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
comment fed future greenspan inflation rates recovery until wait
There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
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This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
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It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.
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Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
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Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
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Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.
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(The GDP and inflation data) won't prevent modest further easing,
electricity factors gasoline good headline inflation natural news percent prices recent reflects rise stronger supports transitory view
The headline reflects a 3.2 percent rise in gasoline prices. Natural gas and electricity prices were also much stronger than the PPI suggested. The good news is the 0.1 percent core, which supports the Fed's view that transitory factors have boosted inflation in recent months.
coming core details economy extent faces goods inflation overall
The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.