Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,
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With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
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Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
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Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to,
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Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
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Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
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Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
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There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
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(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
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These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,