Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
business claims clear confidence drop job level losses net payroll period rate recorded risen signal sustained trend war
The trend in claims has risen this year, in tandem with the clear drop in business confidence in the period before the war with Iraq. If claims are sustained at this level they will signal an acceleration in the rate of net job losses recorded in the payroll numbers.
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No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.
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Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
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Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
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Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
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There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
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Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
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A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
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It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.
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Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.
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There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,
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Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
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Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.
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Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.