Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
believe chance deficit good seriously underlying
Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
absence again certain chance complete current economy evidence evident fed given meaningful pressure rates rise sensitive slowing
Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.
august chance good leaning september
There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.
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We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
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It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.
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It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
chance home market mortgage rates rise slowing
There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly.
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
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(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,