Ian Gunner
Ian Gunner
difficult moves people sort uncertain
People are just uncertain (on U.S. rates) and that sort of uncertainty will make it very difficult to get real directional moves in euro/dollar.
longer reaction
There was a big knee-jerk reaction to the Moody's upgrade, but longer term, I don't think much has changed.
across against bias dollar events general tempered trade upside
There's a general upside bias for the dollar right across the board, but that inclination is tempered a little when you come up against big events like the trade data.
ahead asia buy case change china liquid people
People want to buy Asia ahead of the G7 in case China does anything or there is a change of language. And if you want to buy Asia the yen is a liquid vehicle.
decent dollar equity hang hat market needs news sentiment turn
Sentiment is still dollar negative, and it will take some very decent equity news to turn this around. The market needs something to hang its hat on.
bit level low move pile sharp surprised until
We're consolidating Friday's sharp move lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback first. I wouldn't want to pile in until see $1.1759 level give away -- the low for 2004,
apparent became express fed key quite scale since speech vehicle
It's the first key Fed speech since the scale of the devastation became apparent so that could be quite important if he is used as a vehicle to express Fed policy.
bit clear dangerous data dollar economic increases people rate selling soon stop strong
It's a bit dangerous to be aggressively selling the dollar at the moment. If we're still getting strong economic data it's not clear that U.S. rate increases are going to stop as soon as people think.
appear fact future hike hikes rate rather saying suggest
The fact that he is saying 'moderately augment' would appear to suggest that this will be a 25bp rather than a 50bp hike and that future rate hikes may also be limited.
argument rate rates time
The U.S. rate argument is unequivocal. Rates are going to keep on going up for the time being.
consensus continue course disturb economy german information market suggesting throughout wealth
I think there's a whole wealth of information suggesting that things are on the mend... I don't think this is really going to disturb market consensus that the German economy will continue throughout the course of this year.
dollar fighting fights-and-fighting happening japan realize
Japan doesn't like what is happening but they realize they are fighting a broad-based dollar decline.
confused deliberate people shift stance united until
People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar. Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.
confused deliberate people shift stance united until
People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar, ... Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.