Ian Gunner
Ian Gunner
dollar fighting fights-and-fighting happening japan realize
Japan doesn't like what is happening but they realize they are fighting a broad-based dollar decline.
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There's a general upside bias for the dollar right across the board, but that inclination is tempered a little when you come up against big events like the trade data.
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It's a bit dangerous to be aggressively selling the dollar at the moment. If we're still getting strong economic data it's not clear that U.S. rate increases are going to stop as soon as people think.
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Sentiment is still dollar negative, and it will take some very decent equity news to turn this around. The market needs something to hang its hat on.
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I don't think the Fed are going to signal any kind of pause in rate increases next week. There's no reason the dollar can't continue to benefit from the rate advantage.
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The market will not be confident in attacking the dollar until there is a much greater degree of confidence in calling the peak on Fed funds.
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I think there's a whole wealth of information suggesting that things are on the mend... I don't think this is really going to disturb market consensus that the German economy will continue throughout the course of this year.
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People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar. Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.
confused deliberate people shift stance united until
People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar, ... Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.
difficult moves people sort uncertain
People are just uncertain (on U.S. rates) and that sort of uncertainty will make it very difficult to get real directional moves in euro/dollar.
longer reaction
There was a big knee-jerk reaction to the Moody's upgrade, but longer term, I don't think much has changed.
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The U.S. rate argument is unequivocal. Rates are going to keep on going up for the time being.
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It's the first key Fed speech since the scale of the devastation became apparent so that could be quite important if he is used as a vehicle to express Fed policy.
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We're consolidating Friday's sharp move lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback first. I wouldn't want to pile in until see $1.1759 level give away -- the low for 2004,