Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmiedingis a German economist, the current Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank based at their London officeand a frequent broadcaster and commentator on economic affairs in the media. Before joining Berenberg, he was a Senior Economic Advisor to the International Monetary Fund, a Senior Strategist at the Bank of America and worked for Merrill Lynch, based in Washington D.C., London and Frankfurt. The Financial Times Deutschland placed him at the top of the list of 50 analysts for the proven...
business change climate economic far fruits germany government hardly improved painful reaping restraint seems serious structural terms wage
Germany is reaping the fruits of wage restraint and painful structural reforms. In addition, the change in government seems to have improved the business climate even if Merkel has so far done hardly anything in terms of serious economic reforms.
cut economy growth percent raise taxes whenever
Whenever an economy is struggling, one should not raise taxes. New taxes will probably cut growth by 0.3 percent of GDP.
cut economy growth percent raise taxes whenever
Whenever an economy is struggling, one should not raise taxes, ... New taxes will probably cut growth by 0.3 percent of GDP.
european hours outlook reform worst
We've just had the worst 24 hours for the European reform outlook in a long, long time.
companies declined euro extremely faced found high last quite stepped suddenly wage
Faced with an extremely high euro and high wage costs, the companies stepped up their restructuring. When the euro declined last year, they suddenly found they could take on the world quite easily.
bank chance cutting reasonable
There is a reasonable chance of the bank cutting rates.
deal thorough
We may still get a deal but it may not be thorough enough.
color government likely pace reforms structural ultimately whatever
Whatever the color of Germany's new government will ultimately be, the pace of structural reforms is likely to be slow.
above balance below cuts decline further growth later likely looks mediocre rate rise stay tilt towards
Growth looks more likely to stay below than to rise above 2.5 in the foreseeable future. A further decline in inflation, coupled with mediocre growth, will likely tilt the balance towards further rate cuts later this year.
declines french further
French unemployment is stabilizing. We see further declines in the jobless rate.
forget
Merkel is chancellor, and she is reform-minded; we shouldn't forget that.
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We think around 4.5 percent is the adequate level for U.S. interest rates -- you could call it a neutral level -- and as there are modest inflation risks in the U.S., we expect the Fed to go slightly beyond that to 4.75.
apologize claim financial last lecture ministers publicly run scolded time whom
This has weakened his claim to be the one who could lecture other financial ministers on how to run their economies. He should publicly apologize to the IMF staffers whom he scolded last time for being too pessimistic on the U.K.
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The hope that Germany would be a shining European example for accelerated reforms has been dashed,