Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmiedingis a German economist, the current Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank based at their London officeand a frequent broadcaster and commentator on economic affairs in the media. Before joining Berenberg, he was a Senior Economic Advisor to the International Monetary Fund, a Senior Strategist at the Bank of America and worked for Merrill Lynch, based in Washington D.C., London and Frankfurt. The Financial Times Deutschland placed him at the top of the list of 50 analysts for the proven...
change early faced good high improvement labor likely market news oil seems speak
It seems as if the labor market would stabilize even if it's still too early to speak of a change in trend. It's good news for consumption, but faced with high oil prices, a real improvement doesn't seem very likely for now.
precise provide statement thursday vital
Still, the precise wording of the ECB statement on Thursday could provide some vital clues.
attained bank boom clearly cool early economic explosive fueled house late rates rise
The bank hiked rates aggressively in late 2003 and early 2004 to cool down an economic boom fueled by an explosive rise in house prices, and clearly attained that goal.
bit conflict numbers slightly
They were slightly more dovish than I expected. There is a bit of a conflict between the bank's statement, and the numbers they gave.
bank chance cutting reasonable
There is a reasonable chance of the bank cutting rates.
hike rate remains
A May rate hike remains unlikely, in our view.
economy german worst
This is the worst thing we've had from the German economy for some time.
deal thorough
We may still get a deal but it may not be thorough enough.
color government likely pace reforms structural ultimately whatever
Whatever the color of Germany's new government will ultimately be, the pace of structural reforms is likely to be slow.
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Slow growth last year is still affecting the labor market.
europe hopes hours last reform worst
The last 24 hours were the worst setback for reform hopes in Europe in a long time.
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Germany is reaping the fruits of wage restraint and painful structural reforms. In addition, the change in government seems to have improved the business climate even if Merkel has so far done hardly anything in terms of serious economic reforms.
beyond clear consensus course found future guidance policy provide rate unlikely
The ECB probably has not found a consensus yet on rate policy beyond Dec. 1. For this reason, the ECB is unlikely to provide any clear Fed-style guidance on the future course of rates,
creation distorted economic figures proof work
The figures are not proof yet of an economic slowdown as they are being distorted by cutbacks in work creation programs.