Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmiedingis a German economist, the current Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank based at their London officeand a frequent broadcaster and commentator on economic affairs in the media. Before joining Berenberg, he was a Senior Economic Advisor to the International Monetary Fund, a Senior Strategist at the Bank of America and worked for Merrill Lynch, based in Washington D.C., London and Frankfurt. The Financial Times Deutschland placed him at the top of the list of 50 analysts for the proven...
precise provide statement thursday vital
Still, the precise wording of the ECB statement on Thursday could provide some vital clues.
attained bank boom clearly cool early economic explosive fueled house late rates rise
The bank hiked rates aggressively in late 2003 and early 2004 to cool down an economic boom fueled by an explosive rise in house prices, and clearly attained that goal.
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It seems as if the labor market would stabilize even if it's still too early to speak of a change in trend. It's good news for consumption, but faced with high oil prices, a real improvement doesn't seem very likely for now.
affecting growth labor last slow year
Slow growth last year is still affecting the labor market.
europe hopes hours last reform worst
The last 24 hours were the worst setback for reform hopes in Europe in a long time.
bit conflict numbers slightly
They were slightly more dovish than I expected. There is a bit of a conflict between the bank's statement, and the numbers they gave.
confirm data demand expect growth orders output robust
The orders data confirm that demand is very robust and we expect a significant acceleration in output growth shortly.
hawks hikes pace preventing rate
There could have been a heated discussion, with the doves preventing the acceleration in the pace of rate hikes the hawks may have wanted.
absence against argue case decline effects further headline hike inflation key late leading near oil price rate round second spike
While the surge in key leading indicators strengthens the case for a further rate hike in the near future, the absence of second round effects from the oil price spike and the decline in headline inflation in late 2005 argue against any haste.
britain champions harm learned local selling
Britain has learned that there is no harm is selling your local champions to foreigners.
dislike hike
I dislike the VAT hike tremendously, I don't think it's necessary.
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Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.
economy german worst
This is the worst thing we've had from the German economy for some time.
hike rate remains
A May rate hike remains unlikely, in our view.