Harvinder Kalirai
Harvinder Kalirai
spark
We got the spark from the PPI today,
basis fed halt move
We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting. We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.
basis fed halt move
We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting, ... We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.
australian beneficial decline dollar looking
At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U.S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.
concern continue forecast toward trend wider
The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.
close consensus factor increase july numbers percent stronger
July was much stronger than expected, but when you factor in the revisions to June, there's only a 0.4 percent increase ... I think these numbers are very close to consensus forecast.
recovering
Manufacturing is recovering -- and the recovery, in fact, is accelerating.
direction elsewhere euro europe fed japan opposite policy positive relatively
With the Fed stopping, and policy elsewhere in Europe and Japan going in the opposite direction, it should be relatively positive for the euro and yen.
beneath confidence cracks durable few figures goods last rise signs starting surface weak
There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.
bet brazilians ethanol higher increasing less means near oil prices record refined sugar
With oil prices back near record levels, one can bet that the Brazilians are increasing ethanol production. This means less refined sugar and higher prices.
fed
We think the Fed is going to tighten by the end of August.
australian currency next rise
The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month.
domestic expect numbers reflects sharp solid trade
We did expect a sharp deterioration of the trade balance. The real story on the trade numbers is that the import surge reflects very solid domestic demand.
clear conclusive early economy fed halt headline hot inflation moving next percent perhaps policy running signs towards
There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.