Harvinder Kalirai
Harvinder Kalirai
basis fed halt move
We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting. We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.
basis fed halt move
We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting, ... We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.
direction elsewhere euro europe fed japan opposite policy positive relatively
With the Fed stopping, and policy elsewhere in Europe and Japan going in the opposite direction, it should be relatively positive for the euro and yen.
fed
We think the Fed is going to tighten by the end of August.
clear conclusive early economy fed halt headline hot inflation moving next percent perhaps policy running signs towards
There are very early signs of (a manufacturing slowdown), but I don't think they're conclusive enough to halt the Fed from tightening policy further, ... But I think, ultimately, with the economy running hot and inflation on a clear upswing, we see headline inflation moving towards and perhaps even surpassing 3 percent as we head into next year.
adopted basis bias continued cycle early fed further hike hikes hiking looking neutral points rates suggest total type until
If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.
australian beneficial decline dollar looking
At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U.S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.
concern continue forecast toward trend wider
The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.
close consensus factor increase july numbers percent stronger
July was much stronger than expected, but when you factor in the revisions to June, there's only a 0.4 percent increase ... I think these numbers are very close to consensus forecast.
recovering
Manufacturing is recovering -- and the recovery, in fact, is accelerating.
spark
We got the spark from the PPI today,
beneath confidence cracks durable few figures goods last rise signs starting surface weak
There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.
bet brazilians ethanol higher increasing less means near oil prices record refined sugar
With oil prices back near record levels, one can bet that the Brazilians are increasing ethanol production. This means less refined sugar and higher prices.
australian currency next rise
The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month.