Gina Martin
Gina Martin
certainly core fed half higher increases inflation interest kept pace past prices rate relatively year
Core prices are at a little higher pace than the Fed is comfortable with, but they're certainly not out of bounds, and the interest rate increases over the past year and a half have kept inflation relatively low.
consumers continue equity expect funds home interest less likely mortgage pace prices rates rise rising slower source year
We expect interest rates to continue rising and home prices to rise at a slower pace in the year ahead. This combination makes withdrawal of mortgage equity a less likely source of funds for consumers in the future.
energy minds oil prices
energy and oil prices are on the minds of the non-manufacturing businesses.
both continue downward existing few home months past posted pressure prices sale
Both new and existing home sale prices over the past few months have already been trending downward. Prices will continue to feel downward pressure as more and more units are posted for sale in the marketplace.
difficult help people small wondering
Sometimes, we're wondering what we can do to help and unfortunately, these people are going through a difficult time. It's a small part we can play. At least it's something we can do.
commodity continue core costs edge energy extreme increases prices worry
Core prices are going to continue to edge a little higher. The extreme increases in energy and commodity costs that we've had are going to seep through to the core. Core prices worry the Fed.
blowing holiday likely moderate modest season
The 2002 holiday season will likely be a moderate one, not blowing away modest expectations, but not disappointing them either.
bias far fed inflation measured rather seems slow towards worries worrying
If anything, this confirms the Fed's bias towards inflation rather than worrying about a slow down in growth. The Fed seems to have no worries about growth, as least as far as manufacturing is measured by ISM.
elevated family increase interest likely remain single starts term until
Single family starts will likely remain elevated until we see a significant increase in long term interest rates.
autumn average borrower changes closely correlate family future higher housing moderate months mortgage move plenty rates reach remain robust room series single start until
Single family housing starts, which correlate closely with changes in average mortgage rates, remain robust for now, ... We should start to see this series moderate in future months as higher mortgage rates keep a lid on borrower interest. However, mortgage rates have plenty of room to move before they even reach pre-recession levels. As a result, we may not see a slowdown in housing construction until the autumn months of this year.
analyst behavior carefully consumer drastic indication large likely measures moves purchasing small watched
Measures of consumer perceptions should be watched carefully for large and drastic moves, but the analyst who relies on small moves for an indication of consumer purchasing behavior is likely to get burned.
bigger breaking change great month records
We're consistently breaking records with this report, and just about every month is bigger than expected, so I don't think there's any great change to the story.
access billion consumers equity mortgage record third took
Consumers have access to cash. They took out a record $804 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals in the third quarter.
consumers deal gains gas helping income prices providing quite strong
Consumers are experiencing very strong income gains and that's helping them deal with these gas prices a little better. It's providing quite a cushion.