Gina Martin
Gina Martin
bias far fed inflation measured rather seems slow towards worries worrying
If anything, this confirms the Fed's bias towards inflation rather than worrying about a slow down in growth. The Fed seems to have no worries about growth, as least as far as manufacturing is measured by ISM.
consumers continue equity expect funds home interest less likely mortgage pace prices rates rise rising slower source year
We expect interest rates to continue rising and home prices to rise at a slower pace in the year ahead. This combination makes withdrawal of mortgage equity a less likely source of funds for consumers in the future.
both continue downward existing few home months past posted pressure prices sale
Both new and existing home sale prices over the past few months have already been trending downward. Prices will continue to feel downward pressure as more and more units are posted for sale in the marketplace.
analyst behavior carefully consumer drastic indication large likely measures moves purchasing small watched
Measures of consumer perceptions should be watched carefully for large and drastic moves, but the analyst who relies on small moves for an indication of consumer purchasing behavior is likely to get burned.
elevated family increase interest likely remain single starts term until
Single family starts will likely remain elevated until we see a significant increase in long term interest rates.
autumn average borrower changes closely correlate family future higher housing moderate months mortgage move plenty rates reach remain robust room series single start until
Single family housing starts, which correlate closely with changes in average mortgage rates, remain robust for now, ... We should start to see this series moderate in future months as higher mortgage rates keep a lid on borrower interest. However, mortgage rates have plenty of room to move before they even reach pre-recession levels. As a result, we may not see a slowdown in housing construction until the autumn months of this year.
bigger breaking change great month records
We're consistently breaking records with this report, and just about every month is bigger than expected, so I don't think there's any great change to the story.
blowing holiday likely moderate modest season
The 2002 holiday season will likely be a moderate one, not blowing away modest expectations, but not disappointing them either.
confidence consumer critical readings
I think it is a critical number. It's one of the first readings we get on consumer confidence post-Katrina.
bring fill group help pick until
We're going to fill up all of our buses, and hopefully, we'll bring them up and if we have to go back down there and pick up another group of people, we'll just keep going until they don't need our help anymore.
basically bigger guessing normally stretch
We're basically guessing how the BLS adjusts for Katrina, which is an even bigger stretch than we normally have to do.
bit confusing decline elevated given last november pace several starts steady
The outsized decline in starts in November is a bit confusing given the steady and elevated pace of permitting over the last several months.
election people president uncertain
An uncertain election will do that -- people don't know who the president will be, what's ahead.
affecting biggest consumer consumers determine due everybody face far fed forecasts forward greater higher housing interest item next price rates retailers slowing trading wants watching week worth year
The biggest item affecting trading next week will be the consumer price index, because everybody wants to determine how far the Fed will go. And the forward forecasts of the retailers are worth watching as well, because consumers are going to face greater constraints this year due to higher interest rates and a slowing housing market.