Gerard Burg
Gerard Burg
assess attention attracting continue damage drive prices production storms threat
While we continue to assess the damage from Katrina, the threat to production of new storms is attracting everybody's attention and could drive prices right back up.
continue dictate iron moves power pricing producers short supply surplus terms unlikely until
In terms of being able to dictate prices, iron ore producers will continue to have pricing power until supply moves into a surplus position, which is unlikely in the short term.
calling continues last
For the last two years everyone's been calling the peak, and everyone's been calling it down, but it just continues to go on.
appears city coming energy few further increases line main next positive rise texas
The big positive there was that refinery utilization appears to be on the rise now. The main one coming back on line was the BP Texas City refinery, so with that one coming back we should see further increases over the next few weeks.
coming funds pension
The big increase...is the pension funds that have been coming in.
again bit gasoline providing support
Again it's the story of gasoline inventories ... providing a bit more support for prices.
current given high lack prices revision support volatility
The upward revision in prices is made tentatively given the lack of fundamental support for current high prices and the traditional volatility of speculative funds.
among consensus crude direction oil opposite taken view
Crude inventories went in the opposite direction to the consensus view among analysts. That's taken crude oil up a little higher.
bit came continuing high prices pushed question rise surprised whether year
We see prices continuing to rise during the year but the real question is whether we have pushed up a bit too high with speculative interests. I wouldn't be surprised if it came off a little.
build capacity maximum past usual warmer weather
With refineries ramping up at maximum capacity and with the weather having been warmer than usual over the past two weeks, the build was not that much of a surprise.
barometer conditions copper fall market perceived prices remove support therefore
Copper is often perceived to be the barometer for market conditions and therefore a significant fall in copper prices could remove speculative support from other metals.
capacity fuels heavy largely shortage sour spare supply upgrade
This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway.
additional capacity crude demand places refine run spare starting stocks store
You've got to wonder, where would it go? There's no spare refining capacity to refine it and we're starting to run out of places to store it. Crude stocks are swelled and there's little demand for that additional supply.
concerns led less positions reduction resulting spot support
These concerns also led to a reduction in speculative long positions in the futures market, resulting in less speculative support for spot prices.