Gerard Burg
Gerard Burg
capacity fuels heavy largely shortage sour spare supply upgrade
This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway.
demand europe likely oil rise
It is likely that we are going to see demand for heating oil rise in Europe as end-users look for alternatives to gas.
contract market reports time
Reports of market tightness at the time of settlement play into contract prices.
certainly damage early katrina
We're now in wait-and-see mode, ... There was a pull-back after Katrina went through, but early indicators are certainly that some damage has been done.
barrier easily extent full given next question weeks
We're now in wait-and-see mode. It could be weeks before we know the full extent (of damage), but given how easily $70 was reached, it's not out of the question that $80 could be the next barrier if there's long-term damage.
base below falling forecast metal outcome prices result
Such an outcome would result in base metal prices falling well below our forecast levels.
area capacity element given lack market oil panic solid surprising worldwide
That area is solid with refining capacity. There's an element of panic in the market but that's not surprising given the lack of capacity worldwide at every level, refineries and oil wells.
extent flooding limited replace sort stocks
If there's significant damage, and flooding persists, then there's every possibility that these refineries could be out for that sort of time. There's a limited extent to which stocks can replace refining production.
again bit gasoline providing support
Again it's the story of gasoline inventories ... providing a bit more support for prices.
certainly forecasts last next oil picture seen stocks sufficient suggest weather week
Certainly the fundamental picture doesn't look particularly strong. Stocks in the U.S. are still very high, and while forecasts I've seen for weather for next week suggest it should be considerably colder, heating oil stocks look as if they should be sufficient to last through the winter.
calling continues last
For the last two years everyone's been calling the peak, and everyone's been calling it down, but it just continues to go on.
continue dictate iron moves power pricing producers short supply surplus terms unlikely until
In terms of being able to dictate prices, iron ore producers will continue to have pricing power until supply moves into a surplus position, which is unlikely in the short term.
almost barrels crude figures gasoline million people upside within
The crude figures were pretty bearish. Crude going up by almost 5 million barrels was more than people were expecting. Gasoline was broadly within expectations so there was little upside from that.
action impact market mention mere military prices sends true
The market is not really factoring in the true impact of military action but the mere mention of it sends prices higher.