Gerald Lucas
Gerald Lucas
closer concerned cycle doubt fed inflation january sending signal
What they are doing is sending a signal they are no closer to the end of the tightening cycle than they were at the January meeting. We have little doubt that the new Fed is concerned about inflation and, probably more importantly, inflation expectations.
hand moving pressure treasury
Pressure from bunds is working its way into the Treasury market. Bunds and Treasuries are moving hand in hand.
both bullish level market moved percent prior range
Poole was both bullish and bearish. The market hasn't moved much. I think we'll be in a range around 4.75 percent level prior to payrolls.
broken negative sets since tone
Since it's broken through that, that sets a negative tone for the market.
market pushing
There is some rate-locking going on, and that's pushing the market lower.
coming locks rate
There are probably some rate locks coming off.
certain exactly fed guidance hard
It will be hard for him to give guidance, because the Fed is not certain as to exactly where they are going and they are very data-dependent.
coming data justifies strong
We're approaching oversold conditions, but then we've been getting data that has been coming in strong and which in one way justifies this.
auctions bad depends news whether
Whether that's bad news for the upcoming auctions depends on whether you take a cup-half-empty or cup-half-full perspective.
again estimate last moved process revising week
We are probably in the process of revising our first-quarter GDP estimate up again after we moved it up last week to 4.7 percent,
concerned corporate credit fears happening inflation people
There are some fears about inflation but people are even more concerned about what's happening in the corporate credit market.
although financial flight markets quality settling
There is very much of a flight to quality, although by now financial markets are settling down a bit.
demand fairly good
There will be fairly good demand for the 30-year bond.
market payroll people setting
People are getting defensive, setting up for payrolls. We live from payroll to payroll, and the market fiddles around in between.