Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
orders weakness
Manufacturing is expanding, but not as broadly as in November. There was weakness in new orders and employment.
consumers energy holiday looks numbers optimistic reduced relief spending until weak
Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.
bit compared optimistic people weak year
We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,
change employment fed likely number third views weak
The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
bond cause economic fed market numbers raising seen thinking twice weak
The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
companies cutting hear minds period weak weighs
We're still in a seasonally weak period of year, where companies are trimming workforces. It weighs on people's minds when they hear about companies cutting back.
basically despite economy fact lower prices production seeing weak
We still have a very weak world economy, despite the fact that the U.S. economy is still doing pretty good, ... We're seeing lower prices basically because there is more production out there than demand.
along couple dollar extra giving power pressure pricing rise taking weaker
Along with the rise in non-fuel import prices, this suggests the weaker dollar is taking competitive pressure off of businesses, giving them the extra pricing power they didn't have a couple of years ago.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
core good increased modestly news prices primarily recovery
We did see a big recovery in (producer) prices, but that was primarily in energy. Core prices increased only modestly and that's good news for the Fed.