Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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Today's numbers show that consumers are not very optimistic about the economy. As a result, we will see consumer spending reduced until we see some relief on energy prices. If we don't get some relief, it looks like it will be a very weak holiday season.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
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The good news is that the inflation number was also revised down slightly but is still running higher than we saw a year or so ago,
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The big number is the employment number on Friday. If that number comes in weak for the third consecutive month, views on the Fed are likely to change significantly.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
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It's a good number for the economy. Labor markets are improving, and that increases the likelihood that the economy will remain strong.
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We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.