Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
against buy chinese currency decline dollar items price rise seen
If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.
decline declines leading signal since three trend
It's not really troubling. It's the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that's in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading index to signal a problem.
consistent decline fourth looks numbers quarter small
It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
appears brought decline drop energy good inflation november overall prices rate
It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.
capital compared decline improve last months orders past positive relative rising seven sign
We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
component decline good looks moderation paid prices pricing seeing
The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
affecting closely confidence decline factor shows watch watching whether
Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
concerned continues decline economy grows pace
If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.
claims combined conditions drop earlier employment good remain reported rise start
The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.
consumer despite energy holding market prices rising spending
Energy prices are dropping, and consumer spending is holding up despite rising unemployment . These are encouraging things the market is recognizing.
confidence despite easy energy fewer high jobs people supporting worried
Fewer people are worried about jobs right now, more people think that jobs are easy to get, and I think that's supporting confidence despite the high energy prices.
act concern economy fear fed generate inflation mean point seem
There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.
basis easily numbers revised third
Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.