Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
against buy chinese currency decline dollar items price rise seen
If we'd had a substantial decline in the dollar against the Chinese currency we'd have probably seen a substantial rise in the price of some of the items that we buy from China.
capital compared decline improve last months orders past positive relative rising seven sign
We've seen, over the past seven months or so, orders stabilize or improve slightly, compared to a big decline last year. Orders are rising relative to inventories, and that's a positive sign for capital spending.
affecting closely confidence decline factor shows watch watching whether
Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
couple data decline dollar fall help higher inflation last narrow risk seen suggesting trade
(The data are) suggesting the decline we've seen in the dollar over the last couple of years is not having an impact. It suggests the dollar may still need to fall to help narrow the trade deficit. But there's a risk to higher inflation if it does.
component decline good looks moderation paid prices pricing seeing
The decline in the prices paid component is good news. It looks as if we're seeing some moderation in pricing pressures, but not a significant drop.
concerned continues decline economy grows pace
If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.
consistent decline fourth looks numbers quarter small
It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
appears brought decline drop energy good inflation november overall prices rate
It's a good decline in prices for a change. It appears the big drop in energy prices during November has brought the overall inflation rate down considerably.
decline declines leading signal since three trend
It's not really troubling. It's the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that's in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading index to signal a problem.
above business expansion fed outlook pointing quite zero
The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
costs generally higher numbers passed production running showing
The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
activity economic fourth last quarter saw supports view
This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
government growth inflation less saw
This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.
door fed leaves offset open rate report sort
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.