Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
began below pace somewhat strong utah
Utah began 2006 on a strong note, but on a pace somewhat below that of 2005.
anticipate basis begin committee december designed expect experience federal force full gauge hike increase increased inflation interest january june last lower market meeting national near next open point pressures raise rates reserve since somewhat soon stated time year
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
among business growth offset reports services somewhat strong transport truck weaker
Strong growth among firms in business and professional services and truck transport offset somewhat weaker reports from manufacturers for March.
few inflation lower national past point pressures seen somewhat
As we have seen in the past few months, our inflation gauge, and most national inflation indicators, point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead.
automobile challenges continue course driver growth industry missouri months near point related rest somewhat survey weaker
Survey results, while somewhat weaker than the rest of the nation, continue to point to growth for Missouri in the months ahead. Of course challenges and opportunities related to automobile industry restructuring will be an important driver in the near and intermediate term.
began conditions durable economy goods growth january job kansas note producers reported rest softer solid somewhat stronger year
The Kansas economy began the year on a somewhat softer note than the rest of the region. However, firms reported solid job growth for January with durable goods producers detailing much stronger conditions than non-durable goods firms in the state.
companies economic ethanol fairly february following future growing growth hurricane impacts industry last managers negative october optimistic positive reported reports shipping since solid strong supply survey ties trend year
The trend in economic reports from supply managers in our survey has been fairly positive since October of last year following some of the negative shipping impacts from Hurricane Katrina. Companies with strong ties to the state's growing ethanol industry reported solid growth for February but were very optimistic about future economic growth for this sector.
among business confidence energy expected fed higher hikes impacts managers negative rate regional supply warmer winter
The 15 Fed rate hikes and higher energy prices, even with the warmer than expected winter weather, are having negative impacts on confidence among regional supply managers and business leaders.
certainly clear february january played record region role supporting warm weather
It is certainly clear that record warm weather for much of the region for January and February played an important role in supporting the economy.
arkansas asian beef drive economic fourth growth half higher hunt japanese job losses opening overall pushed quarter second
Manufacturing job losses in the second half of 2005 pushed Arkansas' overall job growth for the fourth quarter to zero. However, Arkansas firms ... benefiting from the opening of the Japanese and other Asian beef markets, and J.B. Hunt Transport, profiting from the U.S. economic expansion, will drive Arkansas job growth higher in the first half of 2006.
business city closing continuing due economic economy fairly gm improving likely negative oklahoma operations positive produce reported sector service year
Transportation firms reported continuing economic weakness. While 2006 is likely to be a positive year for the Oklahoma economy due to an improving telecommunications sector and expansions in business service firms, the closing of GM operations in Oklahoma City will produce some fairly negative economic consequences.
expect hiring months region weaker
I expect positive, but weaker hiring in the region in the months ahead.
commodity expect growth half higher interest prices push rates regional second
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
areas arkansas businesses conditions economic expect growth job northwest parts portion quarter reasonably report second solid stronger
Businesses located in the Northwest portion of Arkansas tended to report stronger economic conditions than businesses in other parts of the state. However, I do expect reasonably solid job growth for most areas through the second quarter of this year.