Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
companies economic ethanol fairly february following future growing growth hurricane impacts industry last managers negative october optimistic positive reported reports shipping since solid strong supply survey ties trend year
The trend in economic reports from supply managers in our survey has been fairly positive since October of last year following some of the negative shipping impacts from Hurricane Katrina. Companies with strong ties to the state's growing ethanol industry reported solid growth for February but were very optimistic about future economic growth for this sector.
ahead city course felt force full gains given gm growth hurt impacts jobs loss months negative oklahoma points positive provisions solid survey until
Of course the loss of the 2,400 GM jobs will hurt the Oklahoma and Oklahoma City economies. However, given the provisions of job banks, the full force of the negative impacts will not be felt until 2008. In the interim, our survey points to solid growth with positive job gains in the months ahead for Oklahoma's economy.
business city closing continuing due economic economy fairly gm improving likely negative oklahoma operations positive produce reported sector service year
Transportation firms reported continuing economic weakness. While 2006 is likely to be a positive year for the Oklahoma economy due to an improving telecommunications sector and expansions in business service firms, the closing of GM operations in Oklahoma City will produce some fairly negative economic consequences.
continue current durable economic goods growth likely lower positive remain south time weaker
For the first time in two years, we are detecting weaker economic growth in South Dakota's economy. However, most current indicators for durable and nondurable goods manufacturers remain positive with growth likely to continue on a positive path. The growth for 2006 will be lower than that for 2005.
growth increases months past point quarter second solid
Increases over the past two months point to solid growth into the second quarter of this year.
again basis federal hike increase january less likelihood meets percent placed quarter rate reserve
In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10.
across bankers board economic february hiring home readings reported retail survey weakness
The bankers in our survey reported economic weakness across the board for February with readings of 28.8 for retail sales, 44.0 for new hiring and 38.5 for home sales.
conditions detailed durable economic food goods producers reported softer
Non-durable goods manufacturers, especially food processors, reported much softer economic conditions for the month. On the other hand, durable goods producers detailed solid, but not spectacular conditions for February.
among business growth offset reports services somewhat strong transport truck weaker
Strong growth among firms in business and professional services and truck transport offset somewhat weaker reports from manufacturers for March.
clear earlier economy energy expected gas growth natural overall pointing prices slower solid stronger
It's clear the overall economy is solid and pointing to growth in the upcoming months, much stronger than anticipated earlier because of energy prices and natural gas prices. We would have expected much slower growth.
america began costs economy elevated energy forced higher interest rates regional year
The Mid-America regional economy began 2005 like a lion, but higher interest rates and elevated energy costs forced the region's economy to end the year like a lamb.
added annual growth half higher mountain rate region rest second states
The Mountain States region experienced growth significantly higher than the rest of the nation. The region added 53,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, in the first half of 2005 but added only 41,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, in the second half of the year.
conditions continue detailed durable economic expect goods growing growth improving pace producers reported slower strong
After growing at a very strong pace in 2005, we are now detecting a slowdown in the pace of growth. Just as nondurable goods manufacturers reported improving economic conditions, durable goods producers detailed a pullback in economic conditions for the month. I expect this slower pace of growth to continue into 2006.
growth hike judgment next rate recent region slow
The most recent rate increases, and a rate hike at its next meeting, in my judgment will slow growth to an unacceptably low rate for the region and the nation.