Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
america began costs economy elevated energy forced higher interest rates regional year
The Mid-America regional economy began 2005 like a lion, but higher interest rates and elevated energy costs forced the region's economy to end the year like a lamb.
higher interest quarter rates second stronger
It's going to be stronger in the first quarter and in the end of the second quarter. It's going to weaken as higher interest rates set in.
bit cutting higher interest oil prices rates
Higher interest rates are cutting a bit into confidence, and now oil prices are going back up to post-Katrina levels.
anticipate basis begin committee december designed expect experience federal force full gauge hike increase increased inflation interest january june last lower market meeting national near next open point pressures raise rates reserve since somewhat soon stated time year
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
commodity expect growth half higher interest prices push rates regional second
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
affecting asian beef borders both factor growth half higher industries industry interest kansas open partners pushed rates sector slow state strong trading
The construction industry and transportation sector in Kansas have pushed 2005 growth into the very strong range. However, higher interest rates will slow growth for both industries in the first half of 2006. The rate at which our Asian trading partners open their borders to U.S. beef will be an important factor affecting growth for the state in 2006.
growth increases months past point quarter second solid
Increases over the past two months point to solid growth into the second quarter of this year.
again basis federal hike increase january less likelihood meets percent placed quarter rate reserve
In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10.
across bankers board economic february hiring home readings reported retail survey weakness
The bankers in our survey reported economic weakness across the board for February with readings of 28.8 for retail sales, 44.0 for new hiring and 38.5 for home sales.
conditions detailed durable economic food goods producers reported softer
Non-durable goods manufacturers, especially food processors, reported much softer economic conditions for the month. On the other hand, durable goods producers detailed solid, but not spectacular conditions for February.
among business growth offset reports services somewhat strong transport truck weaker
Strong growth among firms in business and professional services and truck transport offset somewhat weaker reports from manufacturers for March.
clear earlier economy energy expected gas growth natural overall pointing prices slower solid stronger
It's clear the overall economy is solid and pointing to growth in the upcoming months, much stronger than anticipated earlier because of energy prices and natural gas prices. We would have expected much slower growth.
companies economic ethanol fairly february following future growing growth hurricane impacts industry last managers negative october optimistic positive reported reports shipping since solid strong supply survey ties trend year
The trend in economic reports from supply managers in our survey has been fairly positive since October of last year following some of the negative shipping impacts from Hurricane Katrina. Companies with strong ties to the state's growing ethanol industry reported solid growth for February but were very optimistic about future economic growth for this sector.
added annual growth half higher mountain rate region rest second states
The Mountain States region experienced growth significantly higher than the rest of the nation. The region added 53,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, in the first half of 2005 but added only 41,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, in the second half of the year.