Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
among business confidence energy expected fed higher hikes impacts managers negative rate regional supply warmer winter
The 15 Fed rate hikes and higher energy prices, even with the warmer than expected winter weather, are having negative impacts on confidence among regional supply managers and business leaders.
commodity expect growth half higher interest prices push rates regional second
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
anticipate basis begin committee december designed expect experience federal force full gauge hike increase increased inflation interest january june last lower market meeting national near next open point pressures raise rates reserve since somewhat soon stated time year
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
higher interest quarter rates second stronger
It's going to be stronger in the first quarter and in the end of the second quarter. It's going to weaken as higher interest rates set in.
affecting asian beef borders factor growth open partners rate state trading
The rate at which our Asian trading partners open their borders to U.S. beef will be an important factor affecting growth for the state in 2006.
growth hike judgment next rate recent region slow
The most recent rate increases, and a rate hike at its next meeting, in my judgment will slow growth to an unacceptably low rate for the region and the nation.
added annual growth half higher mountain rate region rest second states
The Mountain States region experienced growth significantly higher than the rest of the nation. The region added 53,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent, in the first half of 2005 but added only 41,000 jobs, an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, in the second half of the year.
details energy finance growth higher job lower moved providers rates remained states weak
For most states in the region, unemployment rates moved lower and job growth higher as manufacturers, finance firms and energy providers details growth. However, telecommunications remained weak and construction cooled in January.
bit cutting higher interest oil prices rates
Higher interest rates are cutting a bit into confidence, and now oil prices are going back up to post-Katrina levels.
america began costs economy elevated energy forced higher interest rates regional year
The Mid-America regional economy began 2005 like a lion, but higher interest rates and elevated energy costs forced the region's economy to end the year like a lamb.
affecting asian beef borders both factor growth half higher industries industry interest kansas open partners pushed rates sector slow state strong trading
The construction industry and transportation sector in Kansas have pushed 2005 growth into the very strong range. However, higher interest rates will slow growth for both industries in the first half of 2006. The rate at which our Asian trading partners open their borders to U.S. beef will be an important factor affecting growth for the state in 2006.
again basis federal hike increase january less likelihood meets percent placed quarter rate reserve
In January I placed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve Rate hike in May at less than 10 percent. I now set the probability of at least a 25 basis point, or quarter percent, increase at 90 percent when the Fed meets again on May 10.
companies economic ethanol fairly february following future growing growth hurricane impacts industry last managers negative october optimistic positive reported reports shipping since solid strong supply survey ties trend year
The trend in economic reports from supply managers in our survey has been fairly positive since October of last year following some of the negative shipping impacts from Hurricane Katrina. Companies with strong ties to the state's growing ethanol industry reported solid growth for February but were very optimistic about future economic growth for this sector.
certainly clear february january played record region role supporting warm weather
It is certainly clear that record warm weather for much of the region for January and February played an important role in supporting the economy.