Ernie Goss
Ernie Goss
among business confidence energy expected fed higher hikes impacts managers negative rate regional supply warmer winter
The 15 Fed rate hikes and higher energy prices, even with the warmer than expected winter weather, are having negative impacts on confidence among regional supply managers and business leaders.
expect hiring months region weaker
I expect positive, but weaker hiring in the region in the months ahead.
commodity expect growth half higher interest prices push rates regional second
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
areas arkansas businesses conditions economic expect growth job northwest parts portion quarter reasonably report second solid stronger
Businesses located in the Northwest portion of Arkansas tended to report stronger economic conditions than businesses in other parts of the state. However, I do expect reasonably solid job growth for most areas through the second quarter of this year.
anticipate basis begin committee december designed expect experience federal force full gauge hike increase increased inflation interest january june last lower market meeting national near next open point pressures raise rates reserve since somewhat soon stated time year
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
continue despite durable economic expanding expect experience goods growth improved industry overall report vehicle
Despite difficulties for Missouri's vehicle manufacturing sector, durable goods manufacturers overall continue to report expanding economic conditions. I expect the state's telecommunications industry to experience much improved growth for 2006.
clear earlier economy energy expected gas growth natural overall pointing prices slower solid stronger
It's clear the overall economy is solid and pointing to growth in the upcoming months, much stronger than anticipated earlier because of energy prices and natural gas prices. We would have expected much slower growth.
conditions continue detailed durable economic expect goods growing growth improving pace producers reported slower strong
After growing at a very strong pace in 2005, we are now detecting a slowdown in the pace of growth. Just as nondurable goods manufacturers reported improving economic conditions, durable goods producers detailed a pullback in economic conditions for the month. I expect this slower pace of growth to continue into 2006.
companies economic ethanol fairly february following future growing growth hurricane impacts industry last managers negative october optimistic positive reported reports shipping since solid strong supply survey ties trend year
The trend in economic reports from supply managers in our survey has been fairly positive since October of last year following some of the negative shipping impacts from Hurricane Katrina. Companies with strong ties to the state's growing ethanol industry reported solid growth for February but were very optimistic about future economic growth for this sector.
certainly clear february january played record region role supporting warm weather
It is certainly clear that record warm weather for much of the region for January and February played an important role in supporting the economy.
arkansas asian beef drive economic fourth growth half higher hunt japanese job losses opening overall pushed quarter second
Manufacturing job losses in the second half of 2005 pushed Arkansas' overall job growth for the fourth quarter to zero. However, Arkansas firms ... benefiting from the opening of the Japanese and other Asian beef markets, and J.B. Hunt Transport, profiting from the U.S. economic expansion, will drive Arkansas job growth higher in the first half of 2006.
began below pace somewhat strong utah
Utah began 2006 on a strong note, but on a pace somewhat below that of 2005.
business city closing continuing due economic economy fairly gm improving likely negative oklahoma operations positive produce reported sector service year
Transportation firms reported continuing economic weakness. While 2006 is likely to be a positive year for the Oklahoma economy due to an improving telecommunications sector and expansions in business service firms, the closing of GM operations in Oklahoma City will produce some fairly negative economic consequences.
according businesses comments dakota definitely difficult economic growth impacts month months north points separate solid survey warmer weather
Businesses in North Dakota definitely benefited from much warmer weather for the month according to comments from businesses in our survey. It is difficult to separate out the impacts of weather from more fundamental economic factors, but even so, our survey still points to solid growth in the months ahead.