Edward McKelvey
Edward McKelvey
data pace rise suggest
The data suggest the pace of unemployment's rise is lessening. They don't tell you you'll get a turnaround, but they're encouraging.
data pace rise suggest
The data suggest the pace of unemployment's rise is lessening, ... They don't tell you you'll get a turnaround, but they're encouraging.
broad looking perspective tremendous
It would be minimal. In a broad perspective, we shouldn't really be looking for a tremendous slowdown.
concerned doubt market
Is the market concerned about it? Yes. Is it a significant concern? I doubt it.
basis estimate expected goes opposite recently released revision trade
We had expected an upward revision in the second-quarter G.D.P. estimate on the basis of other recently released data, ... but trade kind of goes in the opposite direction.
given inflation lack surprising
The really surprising thing is the lack of inflation given this kind of growth.
drag economy-and-economics harder hit rest tends trade
Trade is a drag (on growth) and that tends to hit manufacturing harder than the rest of the economy.
circumstance collapse committee higher inflation means prepared risk worried
If under these circumstances the F.O.M.C. is prepared to keep going, then this means that the committee is more worried about the longer-term risk of higher inflation than the shorter-term risk of a collapse in growth.
complacent decision financial markets means
In our view, the financial markets are much too complacent about what a decision to keep tightening means at this juncture.
clear cut directly easing effective fed fiscal focused homes limited mainly money puts rate sales
The easing the Fed has already done has had a focused and limited effect, mainly on sales of homes and automobiles. It's not clear another rate cut will have much effect. I think fiscal easing is more effective at this point; it more directly puts money in people's pocketbooks.