Douglas Porter
Douglas Porter
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While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.
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I think it will improve liquidity and the attractiveness of owning Canadian financial assets, although I don't see it as a watershed event for Canadian financial markets.
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Manufacturing posted a solid rebound in December from weakness the prior month, but it is far from out of the woods.
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Usually the incentives and the ways builders are allowed to design subdivisions to allow for extra densities sooner or later reduces that cost by a lot.
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I'm actually encouraged by how well the economy hung in there in September and October during the worst of the energy price spikes. The bigger threat to growth is the rising interest rates.
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The results likely fully please almost no one.
labor market points remains tight
This points out that the labor market remains as tight as ever.
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At least one spooky theme behind these moves has been mounting concern that the latest spike in energy prices will cascade into other costs and prices, drive up inflation expectations and force the Fed to be even more fearsome than expected in its tightening campaign,
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It's a red flag. Any time the nation's largest retailer stumbles a bit, it's a warning sign.
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There really can be little debate now that Western Canada is already experiencing the closest thing to full employment in over three decades, with the jobless rate west of Ontario just barely above four per cent.
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The renewed and rapid rise in the Canadian dollar may ultimately do much of (the) tightening for the bank, but we look for at least one more rate hike this year.
close
They're getting close to the end of tightening.
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Foreign private investors remain solid buyers of U.S. securities, providing important support for the U.S. dollar, even in the face of record current account deficits.
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Forecasts of parity (with the U.S. dollar) are multiplying faster than bunny rabbits in May.