Douglas Porter
Douglas Porter
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While the economic data have been all over the place in recent weeks, there are no obvious signs that the economy is cracking in the face of record energy prices. Indeed, the export and production data have been surprisingly perky.
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These solid results suggest that the economy actually had a fair bit of momentum heading into 2003.
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The results likely fully please almost no one.
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The thing about the quarterly figures is they're more driven by what took place at the end of the previous quarter and the start of the current quarter than what happened at end of the current quarter. These numbers tell us spending had a little more momentum heading into 2003 than the quarterly figures would indicate.
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I think it will improve liquidity and the attractiveness of owning Canadian financial assets, although I don't see it as a watershed event for Canadian financial markets.
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Manufacturing posted a solid rebound in December from weakness the prior month, but it is far from out of the woods.
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Usually the incentives and the ways builders are allowed to design subdivisions to allow for extra densities sooner or later reduces that cost by a lot.
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Given that there are virtually no other signs that Canadian spending suddenly weakened in February, this sharp drop in imports is likely to prove to be a fluke.
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While it's a bit of a surprise, the slightly downbeat news on confidence can be explained by the ongoing weakness in employment, and perhaps consumers are a little concerned about the backup in mortgage rates. But while they're becoming less confident, they're still buying -- the latest sales numbers still look good.
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Foreign private investors remain solid buyers of U.S. securities, providing important support for the U.S. dollar, even in the face of record current account deficits.
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Forecasts of parity (with the U.S. dollar) are multiplying faster than bunny rabbits in May.
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It's a red flag. Any time the nation's largest retailer stumbles a bit, it's a warning sign.
close
They're getting close to the end of tightening.
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At least one spooky theme behind these moves has been mounting concern that the latest spike in energy prices will cascade into other costs and prices, drive up inflation expectations and force the Fed to be even more fearsome than expected in its tightening campaign,