Douglas Porter
Douglas Porter
almost fully likely please results
The results likely fully please almost no one.
bigger economy encouraged energy growth hung interest october price rising september threat worst
I'm actually encouraged by how well the economy hung in there in September and October during the worst of the energy price spikes. The bigger threat to growth is the rising interest rates.
current driven figures happened heading momentum numbers previous quarter spending start took
The thing about the quarterly figures is they're more driven by what took place at the end of the previous quarter and the start of the current quarter than what happened at end of the current quarter. These numbers tell us spending had a little more momentum heading into 2003 than the quarterly figures would indicate.
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These solid results suggest that the economy actually had a fair bit of momentum heading into 2003.
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At least one spooky theme behind these moves has been mounting concern that the latest spike in energy prices will cascade into other costs and prices, drive up inflation expectations and force the Fed to be even more fearsome than expected in its tightening campaign,
labor market points remains tight
This points out that the labor market remains as tight as ever.
above barely canada closest debate employment four full ontario per rate three western
There really can be little debate now that Western Canada is already experiencing the closest thing to full employment in over three decades, with the jobless rate west of Ontario just barely above four per cent.
canadian dollar hike rapid rate renewed rise ultimately
The renewed and rapid rise in the Canadian dollar may ultimately do much of (the) tightening for the bank, but we look for at least one more rate hike this year.
largest red time warning
It's a red flag. Any time the nation's largest retailer stumbles a bit, it's a warning sign.
account buyers current face foreign investors private providing record remain solid support
Foreign private investors remain solid buyers of U.S. securities, providing important support for the U.S. dollar, even in the face of record current account deficits.
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Forecasts of parity (with the U.S. dollar) are multiplying faster than bunny rabbits in May.
close
They're getting close to the end of tightening.
ground wage zero
Clearly, Alberta is ground zero for wage pressures.
brakes canadian consumer earlier finally hit poised run spending
Canadian consumer spending is finally poised to hit the brakes after a spectacular run earlier this year,