Dean Baker
Dean Baker
Dean Bakeris an American macroeconomist and co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, with Mark Weisbrot. He has been a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor of economics at Bucknell University. He has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan...
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The problem is that few people recognize it for the gamble that it is.
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It does pull a lot of money out of people's pockets. Even if it doesn't go back up much, it translates to a 50-to-60-cents-a-gallon gas tax. But for the borrowing that people were willing to do, it probably would have led to recession.
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People are really stretched. They are banking on everything turning out right for them. That they won't lose their jobs, that they won't run into unexpected expenses. They're betting that the housing market will continue to appreciate.
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People are always trying to explain the lack of questions as saying there's a consensus around monetary policy, but there's anything but a consensus on monetary policy. What upsets me more than anything is no one is asking serious questions.
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I think their intention is to get people who are loyal and that does raise problems. It's clear that they're looking at this as a sales position.
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He was the one who had the courage to let the unemployment rate fall. Very few people thought the unemployment rate could fall that low.
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Home prices are going through the roof, forcing people to turn to exotic loans and unorthodox financing. These people have no room for error.
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They can't continue to spend beyond their income indefinitely. If people are building up large amounts of debt, you reach a point where they can't continue.
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People are willing to pay them because there is an expectation that prices will continue to rise. Once people don't have that expectation, things will change.
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First of all, it's very expensive to administer private accounts, especially if you let people manage these accounts themselves, ... Bush is vague on how he would set it up and make it work.
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There has never been a run up in home prices like this.
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The optimistic scenario gives you about 2 million jobs next year -- about 180,000 a month. If I had to make my best bet, I'd say we'll have level home prices and growth of about 1.5 percent for the year. There'll be job creation of about 80,000 or 90,000 a month.
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I wouldn't necessarily predict this would be a trigger, but I wouldn't rule it out either. It wouldn't surprise me if you see money leaving the secondary mortgage market, leading housing prices to fall.