David Wyss
David Wyss
David Wyss is an American economist. As New York-based Standard & Poor's chief economist, Wyss was responsible for S & P's economic forecasts and publications. He also coauthored the monthly Equity Insight and the weekly Financial Notes. He was on the board of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C...
bit federal good impact increase inflation news percent possible raise rates reserve worried
We did see a bit of acceleration in wages. We were up 0.4 percent in January. That may be good news for the workers, but it is something that is going to make the Federal Reserve a bit worried about the possible impact of inflation and may increase the probability that they're going to raise rates again.
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Greenspan has had the most successful tenure in Fed history. He kept inflation under very tight control while avoiding any major recessions.
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We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.
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The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.
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It is rather encouraging that the Fed is pointing toward a pause after the May hike. A lot of us were getting concerned that the hikes would continue into June and August. And one of the problems is that what the Fed does now affects the economy a year from now.
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This may mean less change in the Fed statement on Tuesday, and increases the chances of a rate hike in March.
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When oil prices are pushed higher by demand rather than supply shortfall, people have time to adjust. We just keep on trucking.
pick point
To me the point for the administration in this pick is getting this over with quickly.
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I don't think he wants the markets to start thinking about the things he might change. I think he wants to take it easy at first.
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This was certainly a successful launch for the 30-year bond.
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We expect the stock market to have another mild gain, sort of like it did in 2005. We're looking for the market to up about 6% by the end of the year.
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You can live off your income if you lived the way people did in the 1950s.
question
The real question is not what he does, but what he says.
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We can't run econometric models. The numbers aren't good enough.