David Wyss
David Wyss
David Wyss is an American economist. As New York-based Standard & Poor's chief economist, Wyss was responsible for S & P's economic forecasts and publications. He also coauthored the monthly Equity Insight and the weekly Financial Notes. He was on the board of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C...
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We did see a bit of acceleration in wages. We were up 0.4 percent in January. That may be good news for the workers, but it is something that is going to make the Federal Reserve a bit worried about the possible impact of inflation and may increase the probability that they're going to raise rates again.
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We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.
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It is rather encouraging that the Fed is pointing toward a pause after the May hike. A lot of us were getting concerned that the hikes would continue into June and August. And one of the problems is that what the Fed does now affects the economy a year from now.
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This may mean less change in the Fed statement on Tuesday, and increases the chances of a rate hike in March.
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Greenspan has had the most successful tenure in Fed history. He kept inflation under very tight control while avoiding any major recessions.
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The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.
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We expect the stock market to have another mild gain, sort of like it did in 2005. We're looking for the market to up about 6% by the end of the year.
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The second quarter is shaping up to be stronger than expected.
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Energy is the big wild card. We just don't know where prices will be. It will be a question of how fast oil refineries and oil pipelines comes back.
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Even a Chrysler has some imported parts in it and because these Toyotas are a little more expensive, Ford might be charging more.
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People see energy prices going up and they get a little worried about what they can afford to spend money on.
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Common sense says consumers have to stop spending money at some point. But consumers haven't shown much common sense lately, despite griping about gas prices.
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We don't seem to be having any trouble financing our large and growing trade deficits.
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We had expected to see a bigger rebound. On the other hand, some of the pain is lifted by the fact that they did revise up both November and December, so things are still looking pretty good.