David Wyss
David Wyss
David Wyss is an American economist. As New York-based Standard & Poor's chief economist, Wyss was responsible for S & P's economic forecasts and publications. He also coauthored the monthly Equity Insight and the weekly Financial Notes. He was on the board of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C...
change core focused inflation looking sign
There is no change for the Fed. They are more focused on the real economy. They are looking for any sign that core inflation is going up.
fourth looking optimistic percent quarter top
We're now looking at a 3 percent first quarter on top of that 1.4 percent fourth quarter. We've been the optimists, and I haven't been optimistic enough.
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They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.
creeping inflation worried
They like inflation where it is now. But they're worried that it's creeping up.
buy
If you're going to buy bonds, that's the place to be.
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I don't think there's any cliff you suddenly walk off. I'm not going to worry about a recession until we get up to $100 a barrel.
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I don't see how we can avoid taking a hit and it will be coming right as we move into the Christmas buying season.
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The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.
basically consumers gas sales
If you take out gas and cars, sales were basically flat. Consumers are getting more cautious.
capital finance trying
If you're trying to finance capital spending, you do that off saving.
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In Japan's case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so -- but this didn't have much of a negative impact on U.S. markets.
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The geopolitical tensions are affecting people. They're not happy with Washington and when they're not happy about Washington, it ends up making them not happy about the economy.
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The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.
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The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest.