David Jones
David Jones
Twentieth-century British Modernist poet and painter who is best remembered for his long poem "The Anathemata." His other works include "In Parenthesis" and "Cara Wallia Derelicta."
ProfessionPoet
Date of Birth1 November 1895
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I think he will ease one more time ... cut rates one more time before the end of the year, but I just don't think the odds are as strong on Nov. 17th as maybe some people in the market think.
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Without any question, the Fed is vastly different now in terms of openness and transparency. Greenspan's theme has been the more markets know, the better.
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Nothing in these numbers would change the outlook for Fed policy, which is to tighten credit and to try to encourage market conditions that would slow growth to a more sustainable pace this year. The report leaves the Fed on track for a quarter-point hike in February, but there isn't the kind of urgency to warrant a 50 basis point hike.
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No matter how you slice it, we've seen some acceleration in labor costs. The market took heart from good producer and consumer price numbers, but I don't think Greenspan is paying as much attention to those numbers as the Street has.
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The point about labor market weakening suggests the Fed's ... worried about that. That drives home the point they're going to keep these rates unchanged for a long period of time.
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It is a Microsoft market today. People have had the weekend to think about the government's plan to break it up. We're still looking at a strong economy and there's room for some buying - at least today, bulls are back.
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Greenspan is giving the markets a reality check. Good for him.
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That crisis is stabilizing now so I think some of the attention in the markets will come back to that report.
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Clearly, the Fed is in the midst of a series of easing steps and is prepared to ease further if necessary to counter unstable financial market conditions or slower growth.
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The feeling from Greenspan's point of view is that you don't want a pure academic for this post because that person may not have enough political savvy and enough market sense.
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In a sense the dye is cast by this Asian crisis. We have a party until the end of the year in the stock market and in the economy. But we need to sober up next year.
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I don't think the stock market has a clue yet.
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The culture of the chairmanship is to be the dominant voice in the Fed. If you have a weak chairman . . . the markets could be very unsettled.
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Along the way, there also have been major innovations and probably his best one is transparency: Recognizing the need to communicate continuously with markets in deciding how policy will be formulated.