David Ader
David Ader
above calling move numbers ugly yields
These are ugly numbers for bonds. I have been calling for 10-year yields to move back above 4.6 percent.
absent backed buy emerged expected finally money near step supporting temporary view yields
The suspiciously absent real money buyers, that were expected to step in and buy as yields backed up, have finally emerged -- supporting our view that we are near a temporary floor.
change figure framework plans provide semester trying
The suggestions provide framework of how to change our culture. We are going through semester plans and are trying to figure out how to use the suggestions.
anyone apparently failed hardly impressed momentum percent print rather seem
Does anyone seem impressed that tens got to 4.99 percent and failed to print a 5 percent handle? Apparently not. There was hardly a momentum rejection, rather a yawn.
ahead billion continue corporate estimates factor major next treasury weeks
Corporate issuance will continue to be a major factor (in the Treasury market) in the weeks ahead with estimates ranging from $40 billion to $60 billion over the next month.
bit curve excited flat further moved near open pancake year yields
While the curve has moved to flat as a pancake to a bit inverted and yields open the year near 4.38%, we are not excited about further inversion just yet.
action confuse endgame hands magnitude positions price square strong today
Today is about positions unwinding and we should not confuse price action with new, fundamental, information. When unwinds of magnitude take place, they have an endgame -- those positions will square and/or strong hands will dominate.
against cannot core figures outer rate revision solace takes
We cannot take solace from these figures as the upward revision to the core PCE deflator takes the year-on-year rate to 1.9 percent, up against the Fed's outer boundary.
benefit data extend gains impetus
Without the benefit of data or issuance, the impetus to extend those gains is limited.
bullish critical market people push rally short willing
Without more critical information, people are not going to be willing to push it. I don't think the market has been short enough or bullish enough to push this rally further.
market stopped
It's not that the market is bullish, it's that it stopped being bearish.
buying commitment dip larger seen
We've seen dip buying and think that's a precursor to larger commitment into supply.
demand receiving
There are some receiving demand on the back of the supply.
action buying deem fed impact instead last lost market motivation panic view
We deem this action representative of a market that has lost the flurry of last week's panic buying and instead is rethinking its view as to the near-term motivation of the Fed and the impact of Katrina.