Darrel Good
Darrel Good
changed expansion extended feed hog intentions low modest particular period plans producers production relatively report result reveal whether
The production intentions of hog producers will be of particular interest. The report will reveal whether producers' modest expansion plans have changed as a result of an extended period of relatively low feed prices.
continue markets provide react reports updated
Markets will continue to react to other factors, but these reports will provide updated fundamental information.
august believe billion coming crop estimated growing highest larger level nearly observers oil percent recent record reporting season since south stocks year
With the growing season coming to an end, most observers believe that the South American crop will be record large, with more uncertainty about the Argentine crop than the Brazilian crop. U.S. soybean oil stocks at the end of the most recent reporting month--January 2006--were estimated at 2.477 billion pounds, nearly 60 percent larger than stocks of a year ago. Stocks were at the highest level since August 2002.
bit bureau census cut export exports larger last pace projection released report weekly
The cut in the export projection was a bit larger than expected, but the Census Bureau export report for December, released on Feb. 10, indicated that exports are lagging last year's pace by even more than indicated by the USDA weekly export figures.
anticipate appears billion calculate changed corn current domestic eventual forecast grain june less market marketing million next opportunity provide rate report stocks whether year
The June Grain Stocks report will provide the next opportunity to calculate the rate of domestic corn use. Whether or not these projections are changed in the upcoming report, the market appears to anticipate an eventual increase. Stocks of corn at the end of the current marketing year may be 100 to 125 million bushels less than the current forecast of 2.3 billion bushels.
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The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.
additional contrary farmers gain markets profits provides view
This is contrary to the view that the markets are inefficient and provides substantial opportunities for farmers to gain additional profits through marketing.
consider expanding forecasts industry market order range scope subjective uses wider yield
The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.
based crop estimates forecasts generates objective production survey types yield
The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.
appeared direction errors forecast size study trend
There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over the study period.
corn current demand favorable production relatively seem
Current world production and demand prospects, however, seem to be relatively more favorable for corn than for soybeans.
appears based current discourage increase large level prices
Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.
appears billion corn crop forecast implies market means obviously ration sensitive smaller stocks trading vice
A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.
billion crop near produce trend yield
A trend yield near 150 bushels, then, would produce a 2006 crop of 10.92 billion bushels.