Darrel Good
Darrel Good
abandoned centers corn debate decline deviate due generally hard increase intentions magnitude planting potential price record red relationships spring weather wheat winter
Most analysts are on record with expectations of a decline in corn planting intentions and an increase in intentions for soybeans. The debate generally centers on the magnitude of the changes. Acreage of spring-planted crops, however, could deviate from intentions due to escalating spring wheat prices; potential for abandoned hard red winter wheat acreage to be replanted to other crops; changes, if any, in price relationships of spring-planted crops; and spring weather conditions.
additional contrary farmers gain markets profits provides view
This is contrary to the view that the markets are inefficient and provides substantial opportunities for farmers to gain additional profits through marketing.
appears corn demand prospects stronger
At this juncture, it appears that U.S. corn consumption and demand prospects are stronger than prospects for U.S. soybeans.
corn current demand favorable production relatively seem
Current world production and demand prospects, however, seem to be relatively more favorable for corn than for soybeans.
accurately consistent evidence harvest level provides size
That level of use is historically consistent and provides evidence that the size of the 2005 harvest has been accurately estimated.
consider expanding forecasts industry market order range scope subjective uses wider yield
The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.
based crop estimates forecasts generates objective production survey types yield
The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.
appear calendar persist prices range settling trading
Prices now appear to be settling into a trading range that may persist into the first of the calendar year.
factors market next production prospects south three
South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.
beyond bird corn demand domestic due ethanol eventually expanding feed flu increase increased increasing livestock marketing meat might permanent poultry production prospects reduction remain resulting results strong support
However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.
advisory analysis crop earlier included minimum programs released results total year
A minimum of 23 advisory programs were included in the analysis each year. A total of 41 programs were included for at least one year. The results for 1995-2003 were released in earlier reports, while results for the 2004 crop year are new.
available average closely condition crop factors information judge judging lesson market monitor order planting pricing producers production provide ratings reports valuable weather weekly year yield
The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.
accuracy accurate august forecast forecasts market measure period private regardless sensitive somewhat time
The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.
affect area available continue corn costs crops debate decisions increase magnitude plant production rising spring total
The magnitude of the increase will have implications for the total area available to plant the spring-seeded crops such as corn and soybeans. The debate about how rising production costs will affect corn and soybean acreage decisions will continue into the spring of the year.