Darrel Good
Darrel Good
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The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.
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The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.
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The production intentions of hog producers will be of particular interest. The report will reveal whether producers' modest expansion plans have changed as a result of an extended period of relatively low feed prices.
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The price strength has been a little surprising given the magnitude of the surplus in U.S. corn inventories. However, over the past 32 years, the central Illinois cash price has never established a marketing year high in February, suggesting that even higher prices might be expected sometime over the next six months.
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Those intentions are widespread geographically, with the exception of Minnesota and North Dakota, where intentions are unchanged and up 240,000 acres, respectively.
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South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.
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The range of $0.505 is at the low end of historical experience. New highs in the spot cash price are certainly possible, particularly if weather concerns persist into the spring.
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Markets will continue to react to other factors, but these reports will provide updated fundamental information.
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This is contrary to the view that the markets are inefficient and provides substantial opportunities for farmers to gain additional profits through marketing.
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However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.
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The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.
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The cut in the export projection was a bit larger than expected, but the Census Bureau export report for December, released on Feb. 10, indicated that exports are lagging last year's pace by even more than indicated by the USDA weekly export figures.
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A minimum of 23 advisory programs were included in the analysis each year. A total of 41 programs were included for at least one year. The results for 1995-2003 were released in earlier reports, while results for the 2004 crop year are new.
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The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.