Darrel Good
Darrel Good
abandoned centers corn debate decline deviate due generally hard increase intentions magnitude planting potential price record red relationships spring weather wheat winter
Most analysts are on record with expectations of a decline in corn planting intentions and an increase in intentions for soybeans. The debate generally centers on the magnitude of the changes. Acreage of spring-planted crops, however, could deviate from intentions due to escalating spring wheat prices; potential for abandoned hard red winter wheat acreage to be replanted to other crops; changes, if any, in price relationships of spring-planted crops; and spring weather conditions.
affect area available continue corn costs crops debate decisions increase magnitude plant production rising spring total
The magnitude of the increase will have implications for the total area available to plant the spring-seeded crops such as corn and soybeans. The debate about how rising production costs will affect corn and soybean acreage decisions will continue into the spring of the year.
available average closely condition crop factors information judge judging lesson market monitor order planting pricing producers production provide ratings reports valuable weather weekly year yield
The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.
additional contrary farmers gain markets profits provides view
This is contrary to the view that the markets are inefficient and provides substantial opportunities for farmers to gain additional profits through marketing.
consider expanding forecasts industry market order range scope subjective uses wider yield
The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.
based crop estimates forecasts generates objective production survey types yield
The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.
appeared direction errors forecast size study trend
There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over the study period.
corn current demand favorable production relatively seem
Current world production and demand prospects, however, seem to be relatively more favorable for corn than for soybeans.
appears based current discourage increase large level prices
Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.
appears billion corn crop forecast implies market means obviously ration sensitive smaller stocks trading vice
A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.
billion crop near produce trend yield
A trend yield near 150 bushels, then, would produce a 2006 crop of 10.92 billion bushels.
appears corn demand prospects stronger
At this juncture, it appears that U.S. corn consumption and demand prospects are stronger than prospects for U.S. soybeans.
factors market next production prospects south three
South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.
appear calendar persist prices range settling trading
Prices now appear to be settling into a trading range that may persist into the first of the calendar year.