Darrel Good
Darrel Good
appears billion corn crop forecast implies market means obviously ration sensitive smaller stocks trading vice
A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.
appearing forecasts impact larger largest prices production reactions recent similar somewhat
Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August, with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.
appeared direction errors forecast size study trend
There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over the study period.
consider expanding forecasts industry market order range scope subjective uses wider yield
The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.
based crop estimates forecasts generates objective production survey types yield
The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.
concerns conditions consistent drought forecasts increases moderate parts plains severe southern summer weather yield
The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.
accuracy accurate august forecast forecasts market measure period private regardless sensitive somewhat time
The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.
anticipate appears billion calculate changed corn current domestic eventual forecast grain june less market marketing million next opportunity provide rate report stocks whether year
The June Grain Stocks report will provide the next opportunity to calculate the rate of domestic corn use. Whether or not these projections are changed in the upcoming report, the market appears to anticipate an eventual increase. Stocks of corn at the end of the current marketing year may be 100 to 125 million bushels less than the current forecast of 2.3 billion bushels.
appear calendar persist prices range settling trading
Prices now appear to be settling into a trading range that may persist into the first of the calendar year.
appears based current discourage increase large level prices
Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.
billion crop near produce trend yield
A trend yield near 150 bushels, then, would produce a 2006 crop of 10.92 billion bushels.
appears corn demand prospects stronger
At this juncture, it appears that U.S. corn consumption and demand prospects are stronger than prospects for U.S. soybeans.
corn current demand favorable production relatively seem
Current world production and demand prospects, however, seem to be relatively more favorable for corn than for soybeans.
abandoned centers corn debate decline deviate due generally hard increase intentions magnitude planting potential price record red relationships spring weather wheat winter
Most analysts are on record with expectations of a decline in corn planting intentions and an increase in intentions for soybeans. The debate generally centers on the magnitude of the changes. Acreage of spring-planted crops, however, could deviate from intentions due to escalating spring wheat prices; potential for abandoned hard red winter wheat acreage to be replanted to other crops; changes, if any, in price relationships of spring-planted crops; and spring weather conditions.