Dariusz Kowalczyk
Dariusz Kowalczyk
increase premium reason rise risk situation
The reason for the rise is the increase in the geo-political risk premium because of the situation in Iran.
clear country decision iran mostly refer regarding security situation
I think it's mostly the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and the very clear decision of the IAEA to refer the country to the UN Security Council.
likely nigeria prices remain rise situation volatile
The situation in Nigeria is likely to remain volatile for some time. Prices should rise because of disruptions in supply.
disruption effect energy europe factor including oil potential rather russia situation supply ukraine
The situation between Russia and Ukraine is a rather (supportive) factor for oil ... as the potential for (gas) supply disruption in Europe is having a correlating effect on other energy commodities including oil.
builds increasing iranian market premium price risk situation
The Iranian situation is increasing the geopolitical risk premium that the market builds into the price of oil.
cut
There are indications that OPEC will not cut output.
close demand draws focus gasoline improved season since stocks winter
As the winter season draws out to a close this quarter, the focus will be on gasoline stocks especially since demand has improved on-year.
cut less nigeria supply
Yes, there is less supply in Nigeria but that is not enough to cut into oversupply.
cut less supply
Yes, there is less supply in Nigeria, but that is not enough to cut into oversupply.
bigger expect gone last market might rates
We might see a bigger drawdown than the market consensus. I expect refining rates to have gone up last week.
home meeting people sell short
Because of the meeting of the IAEA on Monday, people do not want to go home short (with a sell bias) for the weekend.
compared energy low oil supplies
Supplies of heating oil are very low compared to other supplies of energy commodities.
data downward inventory later pressure prices
OPEC and inventory data should put downward pressure on prices later today.
demand outlook related
Fundamentally we should go down because of the demand outlook related to weather.