Daragh Maher
Daragh Maher
against dollar european expecting gains reasonably seen small soft undo
We are expecting a reasonably soft number, which could undo some small dollar gains we have seen against European currencies.
bit days dollar few good last maybe numbers people period reasonably seems
The sense over the last few days seems to be that the dollar is reasonably well supported. We have had reasonably good numbers out of U.S. for a considerable period and the dollar did not rally, so maybe people are having a bit of a rethink.
data direction dollar hangover soft worked yesterday
There is a big hangover from soft U.S. data we had yesterday which worked in the direction of dollar weakness.
euro generally holding improving inflation percent zone
We will probably see inflation holding around 2.4 percent and it is still benign. Things are generally improving in the euro zone and I don't think this story will be derailed by the PMI.
bit evidence focus growth nervous next pickup rally rate seen
I'd be a bit nervous about the pound's rally recently. We've not seen enough evidence of a pickup in growth and the focus is still on the next rate cut, which I think we'll get in February.
consumer mean performance revival
One month's out performance does not mean the long-awaited consumer revival has arrived.
bank concerns early ease england loss momentum months nervous none outlook
None of this will ease concerns for those at the Bank of England nervous about the outlook for consumption in the months ahead, particularly after the loss of momentum early this year.
euro finance france higher ministers pressure push raise reluctance riots zone
There is a reluctance to push the euro/dollar higher because of riots in France and pressure from euro zone finance ministers not to raise rates.
accuracy apparent bank bearing given initial policy whether
Given the Bank of England's apparent wariness about the accuracy of this initial (GDP) estimate, it is questionable whether it will have much of a bearing on policy decisions.
associated catalyst creating deliver exit itself market move political recovery strategy stretched
If the BOJ can deliver an exit strategy without creating undue political friction, it could be the catalyst for some associated recovery in the yen, a move that will only be amplified, the more stretched the speculative market allows itself to become.
business concerns confidence driven euro external keeps revival zone
There are concerns that the revival in euro zone business confidence has been driven by the external sector, which could be undermined if the euro keeps on rising.
activity central close content continue division economic environment expected forecast inflation majority overlook rather report target tone tracking within
Certainly, the tone of the Inflation Report did not hint at such a pronounced division within the central bank, but rather one where the majority is content to overlook shortfalls in economic activity in an environment where inflation is tracking close to target and expected to continue doing so over the forecast horizon.
clear happen none questions raised vote
It's not clear what will happen to Europe. A lot of questions have been raised by this vote and none of this is immediately positive.
aspect data failed generally impetus market provide reaction released strong surprises today upside
The interesting aspect of the market reaction to the generally strong data released today is that the upside surprises have failed to provide any upward impetus to the dollar.