Dan Niles
Dan Niles
believe best estimates forward likely remain unchanged
As a result, we believe forward EPS estimates at best will remain unchanged and most likely will need to be lowered.
believe booked intel loaded quarter seeing third
We believe that Intel is seeing the most front-end loaded third quarter in many years and is booked out for the quarter.
believe demand exceed fourth likely possibly quarter supply third
We believe that demand is now likely to exceed Intel's processor supply now through the third quarter and possibly into the fourth quarter.
believe call cents consensus double enable estimates good higher job lead levels margins operating several
We believe that Compaq also did a good job on the profitability front, which should enable operating margins to more than double from third-quarter levels ... this should lead to earnings-per-share at least several cents higher than the consensus First Call estimates of $0.16.
believe downside estimates negative pcs remain risk stock
We remain negative on PCs and semis and believe there is still downside risk to estimates and stock prices.
believe downside happen high poor reasonable remain sidelines stock though until
Though we believe Dell can outperform the Nasdaq in 2000 after a poor 1999, we believe this can only happen after expectations have been reset to more reasonable levels. We believe downside on the stock is to the high $30s. We remain on the sidelines until then.
encouraged given gross guidance last line margin next people quite surprised year
I'm surprised it was this good, quite honestly. And more importantly the guidance for next year on the gross margin line of 57 percent. I think people are going to be very encouraged given that's up pretty substantially from what they did this last year.
half looks year
The back half of the year looks like it will be better than expected.
core profitable services
Services are much more profitable than their core business.
fourth implies looking people range
Slightly, to my mind, implies 3- to 5-percent growth. I think most people were looking at the 7- to 8-percent range for the fourth quarter.
almost computing continuing drive enterprise expected focus fourth global gross improvement margins mix next percent produced profits revenue segment services total year
Their focus on the enterprise computing and global services segment produced 51 percent of total revenue and 90 percent of total profits in the fourth quarter. A continuing improvement in the mix is expected to drive gross margins to almost 25 percent next year from 23.5 percent this year.
gives happen magnitude market miss move next pc pricing year
There could be a bloodbath in pricing in the first part of next year if they don't move inventories over the holidays. The magnitude of the miss gives you an idea of what's going to happen with the PC market next year.
excited growth hard line miss negative revenue stock top
When you miss your top line by $1 billion, the stock should go down. With negative year-over-year revenue growth it is really hard to get excited about the stock.
declines growth offset price seeing strong unit
The unit growth is not so strong as to offset the price declines they're seeing in their chips.