Dan Niles
Dan Niles
believe downside estimates negative pcs remain risk stock
We remain negative on PCs and semis and believe there is still downside risk to estimates and stock prices.
close half industry latter pcs people percent ready second sells stronger versus
We're getting to the latter half of the year. and typically, the industry sells close to 20 percent more PCs in the second half versus the first half. People are getting ready in anticipation of a much stronger second half of the year.
believe downside happen high poor reasonable remain sidelines stock though until
Though we believe Dell can outperform the Nasdaq in 2000 after a poor 1999, we believe this can only happen after expectations have been reset to more reasonable levels. We believe downside on the stock is to the high $30s. We remain on the sidelines until then.
against increased intel market past percent price seen share war
Over the past two years, AMD has increased its market share against Intel from 13 percent to 21 percent. For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.
ahead business buying dying enterprise feeling fourth growth ibm obvious patterns people quarters ready stance systems third
Our stance has been in big enterprise applications, it was obvious that people were buying ahead to get their systems ready for Y2K. The mainframe business is a dying business, and our feeling was IBM would see it in the third and fourth quarters because the growth patterns weren't normal.
affects europe
They're going to get clobbered. If it's a Europe problem, that affects everybody, not just Intel.
continues data earliest expect general pickup point recovery spending stretch summer till
This is yet another data point that the general IT spending pickup continues to stretch out in time. We do not see a recovery till after the summer at the earliest and even then expect the recovery to be gradual.
believe best estimates forward likely remain unchanged
As a result, we believe forward EPS estimates at best will remain unchanged and most likely will need to be lowered.
bottom firm footing line puts quarters reality saying
The bottom line is they (Cisco) said the bottom may be one-to-two quarters out so that puts you back to firm footing with reality saying this is not over yet.
declines growth offset price seeing strong unit
The unit growth is not so strong as to offset the price declines they're seeing in their chips.
bottom economy guess rebound sit time
This economy is not going to rebound any time soon. To sit here and guess where the bottom is is a loser's bet.
gave growth guidance industry quarter third worse
Dell reaffirmed their guidance for the third quarter, but gave no guidance going forward. They also said that industry growth for the third quarter was going to be worse than expected.
market pc pricing share walked
Compaq walked away from PC market share when pricing was irrational.
price seen war
For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.