Dan Niles
Dan Niles
happening problem stop time
The problem is how long will it take for the fundamentals to stop getting worse, and we don't see that happening any time soon.
beat good numbers quarter three
It was about as good a quarter as you're going to get. They cleanly beat the numbers by about three cents.
demand inventory large levels likely looks situation sluggish supply worse
The supply situation will likely get worse in the first half, while demand looks sluggish at best, with large inventory levels in the supply chain.
market pc pricing share walked
Compaq walked away from PC market share when pricing was irrational.
bombed higher hurting intel kept low performance prices pricing products
In the past, Intel has had much higher performance products than AMD had, so they bombed prices on the low end, and kept pricing higher on the high end. This time, AMD's got as speedy processors as Intel does at the high end. There's nothing Intel can do. They can't bomb prices without hurting themselves.
encouraged given gross guidance last line margin next people quite surprised year
I'm surprised it was this good, quite honestly. And more importantly the guidance for next year on the gross margin line of 57 percent. I think people are going to be very encouraged given that's up pretty substantially from what they did this last year.
core profitable services
Services are much more profitable than their core business.
fourth implies looking people range
Slightly, to my mind, implies 3- to 5-percent growth. I think most people were looking at the 7- to 8-percent range for the fourth quarter.
almost computing continuing drive enterprise expected focus fourth global gross improvement margins mix next percent produced profits revenue segment services total year
Their focus on the enterprise computing and global services segment produced 51 percent of total revenue and 90 percent of total profits in the fourth quarter. A continuing improvement in the mix is expected to drive gross margins to almost 25 percent next year from 23.5 percent this year.
bottom call cautious intel pickup quarter reached remain sees signs until
Intel sees no signs of a pickup and would not call this quarter the bottom for revenues. We do not think the bottom will be reached until the summer, at the earliest, and remain cautious on the stock.
correction grew inability inventory october percent quarter reduce seen view worst
Cisco's inability to reduce its inventory after the October quarter when revenues grew 14 percent quarter over quarter and inventory grew by 59 percent quarter over quarter reaffirms our view that we have not yet seen the worst of the inventory correction for semiconductor suppliers.
half looks year
The back half of the year looks like it will be better than expected.
believe best estimates forward likely remain unchanged
As a result, we believe forward EPS estimates at best will remain unchanged and most likely will need to be lowered.
bottom firm footing line puts quarters reality saying
The bottom line is they (Cisco) said the bottom may be one-to-two quarters out so that puts you back to firm footing with reality saying this is not over yet.