Craig Pennington
Craig Pennington
across areas build built expectation inventory outside product risk surprise
The expectation for an inventory build is built in across all the product areas with an outside risk of a surprise on heating oil.
hearing slowly system
We've been hearing about restarts and the system will be slowly getting back on its feet.
collapse harsh market normal oil supply unseen
If we get a normal winter, we'll probably have enough inventories, but if we get a very harsh winter, inventories could collapse to unseen levels. The oil market would be very jittery with any supply disruptions.
gasoline people watch
People will still watch gasoline because of maintenance and subsequent specification changes.
difficult nigeria offshore targeted
Nigeria has always been a difficult place and now they have targeted the offshore platforms. They've never done that before. Obviously, that's very dangerous.
based couple days establish past price view weather
The past couple of days have been based on one entity's view of what January's weather will look like and that hasn't been enough to establish a price trend.
barrel conclusion disruption higher oil prices reluctant start turning
With oil prices at $60 a barrel it was a foregone conclusion they were not going to cut. If you do see disruption from Nigeria, if you do see disruption from Iran, the oil price will go substantially higher from here. So OPEC is reluctant to start turning the taps off just now.
bit cold focus start starting time warm weather winter
We had a warm start to the winter but now it is starting to look a bit ugly. The focus will be on cold weather for some time to come.
biggest draws entering people period rates run start
The refineries are entering their biggest period of maintenance. People will start to look for the refinery run rates and look for bigger-than-expected draws on gasoline.
bit iran market oil premium price sanctions taken
A bit of the premium in the oil price on Iran has been taken off today. The market interpretation (of U.S. comments) is that there will be no sanctions and that oil won't be used.
bit iran oil premium price taken
A bit of the premium in the oil price on Iran has been taken off today.
barrels capacity gulf million missing production spare
There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1.5 million barrels a day this year.
commodity driven fact funds market matter mostly oil pension prices spare supported
The oil market has been driven by speculators, by hedge funds, by pension funds and by commodity indexes, but the fact of the matter is that it's mostly been driven by the fundamentals. Prices are supported by the fact that there is no spare capacity.
caused changes disruption looking people product
People are looking to product spec changes and the disruption that will be caused by product spec changes.