Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg is the Founding Partner of Beacon Economics, LLC, an independent research and consulting firm. Under his leadership, Beacon Economics became known as one of the earliest and most adamant forecasters of the subprime mortgage market meltdown in 2007...
add smooth
That could smooth out the cycle, so to speak. But when you add it all up, it's unclear.
bottom economy point top
We're in a housing-driven economy from top to bottom at this point in time.
housing party signs
There are some signs that the housing party is ending.
employment lots showing
We have lots of new employees. It's just not showing up in the employment statistics.
catch fall flat home jobs local looking lose prices rare seven six unless
It's pretty rare for home prices to fall unless you lose a lot of jobs in the local area. What you're really looking at is prices going flat for six or seven years while the fundamentals catch up.
agents building estate financing people stores
It's people building houses, ... It's people financing the building of houses. It's people working in the stores that are furnishing those houses, and of course, the real estate agents who are making this all happen.
deal issue nobody wants
It's such a contentious issue that nobody wants to deal with it.
aware business cause economic pain people point
It's business delayed, not business canceled. They make people aware of what's going on, but it doesn't cause any economic impact. It's a pain in the butt, but they get their point across.
bubble housing seen size strange
We've never seen this size of a housing bubble before, so in a sense we're in kind of a strange place right now.
appreciation bonus consumers expect likely longer pull realize subsidize
When consumers realize they can no longer expect that appreciation bonus to subsidize their consumption habits, they will very likely pull back on spending.
bubble dropping fixed housing huge lots market pop prices stock
We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.
crazy financing gotten people point prices
You got to think that this thing is going to end, eventually, one way or another. Prices have gotten to the point that, even with all the crazy financing out there, people still can't get into the market. It's just that over the top.
economy top
This is a real-estate-driven economy from top to bottom.
behaving difficult figure
It's an irrationally behaving market. It's very difficult to figure out where it is going to go.