Christopher Low
Christopher Low
abandon bolster confidence consumers continued core energy fear future health immediate inflation lack likely pass raise sign spent
There is no sign of an immediate pass through of energy to core prices, but consumers spent with abandon considering their lack of confidence in the continued health of the economy. That is likely to bolster the Fed's fear of future inflation and reinvigorate their will to raise rates.
bias efficiency fed meaning meant within
We had thought that transparency meant efficiency in the market... and that's not what happened. The meaning of the bias within the Fed was not well understood.
abysmal consumer deeply half suggesting
These are abysmal numbers, suggesting a deeply pessimistic consumer in the first half of September.
auction bonds expected five treasury
Today, the first auction of 30-year Treasury bonds in (almost) five years is expected to go well.
coming consumer december fourth looks percent quarter somewhere spending turns unless
Fourth quarter consumer spending is coming in a lot lower. It looks like it's going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 percent -- that is, unless December turns out to be a blockbuster month.
brought energy lower prices relief
Lower energy prices have brought a sense of relief to consumers.
foreign interest low mixed saw
So far, the refunding has been a mixed bag. The three-year saw little foreign interest and had a low bid-to-cover, but the 10-year went a little better yesterday.
expect fed funds hike percent statement today
Like everyone else, we expect a quarter-point hike in fed funds today to 4.75 percent -- we also expect the statement to be softened.
cities city empty entire huge impact looks maybe prices several severe smaller sustained talking weeks
We're talking about an entire huge city and several smaller surrounding cities that will be empty for some time. It looks like we are going to have sustained prices for at least some weeks and maybe even months, and if that happens, I think that will have a pretty severe impact on the economy.
testimony tone took weeks
It's the same tone that he took in his testimony two weeks ago.
fed home nice taking
It's nice to know that the Fed is taking (exotic home loans) seriously,
economists either expecting fed further inflation judgment might remove risks toward warning
Economists were expecting that the Fed would either remove the warning about asymmetric risks toward inflation or judgment that further tightening might be necessary. Of course, the Fed did neither.
anecdotal evidence national none numbers plenty regional shown
It's a big surprise. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence of regional weakness, but none of the national numbers have shown weakness.
affirm consistent cooling data decline helps housing sector
The decline helps affirm cooling in the housing sector and is consistent with other broad-based data we have seen.