Chris Hurt
Chris Hurt
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What we've seen with the mobility of labor, particularly from Mexico, has enabled that industry to stay in the United States. It's entirely possible that if labor had not been mobile that parts of the industry would have to moved to other countries like Mexico.
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Perhaps this is signaling a reversal of the longer-run trend of the breeding herd moving away from the eastern Corn Belt. In 1990, 27 percent of the U.S. breeding herd was in the eastern Corn Belt. That portion declined steadily to a low of only 17.2 percent in 2004.
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Much like the beef herd, heifer retention for herd replacements was up 4 percent and will allow an increase in the number of milk cows by nearly 1 percent this year.
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There are two concerns in U.S. cattle markets. First, there?s the concern that we would lose beef exports.
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It is too early to tell from the data, but it will be interesting to watch in coming years.
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For Illinois, current cow numbers are 20,000 larger than those of three years ago and Ohio has added 37,000 cows in the last three years. Indiana, however, has seen beef cow numbers decrease.
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Summer prices may be a bit discouraging this year having averaged above $50 for the past two years.
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That's going to be a wonderful opportunity for retailers to lower prices at the supermarket.
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I think the reaction on the consumer side will be relatively mild.
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Overall, the U.S. breeding herd has been trending lower as a result of the sow herd shifting to Canada and as a result of higher productivity.
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The National Weather Service is calling for intensification in that area and broadening of the drought into the central Plains and western Corn Belt by this spring.
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Integrated hog operations tend to like to have their own feed-milling capacity. They tend to locate hogs generally within 50 to 60 miles of that feed mill.
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Beef producers continued to expand the breeding herd for the second year. Beef cow numbers increased by 1 percent during 2005 after a small rise in 2004. The total number of cows increased by 338,000 head and the increase was concentrated in the western Corn Belt, where Missouri increased by 115,000 cows and Iowa by 40,000.
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However, for hogs and poultry, the question is whether the increased price of corn will be offset by added value in the feed product that is returned. If not, this could mean some restructuring of the location of the U.S. and world animal industries. This appears to be particularly true for the eastern Corn Belt and the southeastern United States where hog, poultry and dairy are more dominant.