Carsten Fritsch
Carsten Fritsch
bad data deficit dollar extremely numbers occasions pressure trade
After the trade deficit data in 9 out of 11 occasions the dollar went up. We need extremely bad numbers to put pressure on the dollar.
higher improved presents problems risk structural trend
The structural problems have not improved and the trend is still to higher deficits. That presents a risk for the dollar.
ahead assessment economic language market people positions short
People are unwinding short yen positions ahead of the BOJ meeting. Some market participants are speculating on what kind of the language and economic assessment would come out of the meeting.
again cut economy expect might point rate rates risk slow
We don't expect another rate cut ..., but there is still the risk that rates might be cut again at some point if the economy should slow further.
available carry coming decision interest less means policy positive rate trades zero
Today's decision means the end of zero interest rate policy is coming closer. Less liquidity is available for yen carry trades and that should be positive for the yen.
against bad dollar given hurt number positive sentiment trade
We would need a very bad trade number to hurt the dollar against the euro, given positive dollar sentiment at the moment.
agree change comments following further government japanese positions short suggested time
It's the continuation of unwinding of yen short positions following further comments from Japanese officials. This time it was the government official, which suggested the government may agree with the BOJ to change policy.
africa attract difficult gap investment likely south year yield
It's likely to be another difficult year for the rand. As the yield gap narrows, that will make it more difficult for South Africa to attract the investment it needs.
ahead coalition euro expect further hurt process reform weakness worrying
A coalition of this kind would hurt the reform process considerably, and that's worrying the market. I'd expect to see further euro weakness ahead of the election.
continue dollar fed gain keeps move perception raising
The move in the yen has spilled over on the perception the dollar will continue to gain as the Fed keeps raising rates.
bets bigger develop fed high hopes increases justify people rate report seen
People have got high hopes for this number, to justify some of the bigger expectations for Fed rate increases we've seen develop this week. No one's going to want to put on big bets before the report though.
beginning close cycle fed hike rate support
The Fed is close to the end of its rate hike cycle while the ECB is just beginning, which removes support for the dollar.
assessment coming comments economic governor interest point policy rate upgrade view zero
There was an upgrade in the economic assessment by the BOJ and comments from governor Fukui. From that point of view an end to the zero interest rate policy is coming closer.
against among break causing decided failed funds lows money move people selling sharp
After we failed to break the year's lows against the euro, people decided to take some money off the table. Hedge funds are among those selling the dollar, and they're causing this sharp move upward.