Carolyn Kwan
Carolyn Kwan
bank canada data early overall points question supportive week
Everything this week is going to be hinging on the Bank of Canada early on -- there are also some important data points which should be supportive overall -- but the question really is the statement.
canadian commodity dollar expectation natural oil prices
With the commodity prices easing, especially oil and natural gas, the expectation is that the Canadian dollar would actually come down somewhat.
aircraft civilian decline entirely fall five largest nearly normal orders returned strong
While this is the largest monthly decline in nearly five years, the fall is entirely attributable to civilian aircraft, as non-defense aircraft orders returned to a normal pace, after a stunningly strong December.
areas basically gains good high investment last level whatever
Basically whatever high level of investment there last year, there will be even more this year. But we have some good gains in other areas too.
canadian shift small suppose
I suppose the Ivey may be having some small effects, but we don't think it should be. Fundamentally we don't think there's been any real shift in the Canadian economy.
both helped january level likely months normal previous represent since starts strongest though underlying weather
It is likely that the level of starts in both months was helped by milder than normal weather (the previous month, for example, was the strongest level of starts since January 1987), though they still represent strong underlying demand.
coming increase interest next rate supportive
I think the next interest rate increase is pretty much anticipated. We (forecast) another interest rate increase coming right after that as well, we think this is pretty supportive of that.
bit came canadian course deficit dollar except expected positive result smaller stronger time trade
With the stronger trade surplus, I would have expected the Canadian dollar to do a little bit better, except of course at the same time the U.S. trade deficit came in smaller than expected. As a result it's been positive for the U.S. dollar.
expecting impact increase rate
We're still expecting one more rate increase and I think this probably should not have too much of an impact overall.
again canadian commodity direction gone next prices range terms watching
We'll be watching the commodity prices again for the next little while in terms of direction for the Canadian dollar. We've gone through now C$1.14 and we're in a new range again.
mediocre overall report tone
The overall tone of the report is pretty mediocre at this point.
might number represent risk upside
Today's number might represent some upside risk to that.
apparel christmas entertainment home includes retail strength
The strength in this component, which includes apparel and home entertainment goods, bodes well for Christmas retail sales.
affected bit financial further immediate point situation terms until
In terms of how it affected financial markets, it did have an immediate impact, but I don't think it's long-lasting at this point until we know a little bit further what the situation is surrounding it.