Bob Schnorbus
Bob Schnorbus
caused drop gas inventory levels pickup prices rising
Dwindling 2005 inventory levels and rising gas prices have caused a significant drop in full-size SUV and pickup sales.
best difficult far impact incentives last levels near pushed quarter record return sales selling third track turned year
So far through the first quarter we're pretty much on track with where we were last year, which turned out to be the third best selling year in history. However, it's still difficult to know if the big incentives that were implemented last year and pushed some monthly sales to near record levels will return and have a significant impact on the remainder of the year.
current high incentive last levels obviously pressure price quite remain rise
The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.
test
March, in my view, will be interesting. It'll be the first real test of the new chairman.
boost concern game gm hard impact incentives kicking pulling pushing screaming time whether
I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.
aggressive chance continue depends good last played rest rule turn war
I wouldn't yet rule out the chance we could be as good as last year. It depends on how things turn around now that the uncertainties of the war have played out and how aggressive the automakers continue to be through rest of the year.
bit expected kick offset quarter start strong weaker
If we get a big kick start to the quarter with a strong April, that could offset us being a bit weaker than we expected to be in the first quarter.
clearance earlier high incentives likely maybe move period rather simply sooner trial wait year
Simply put, if the '03 had high incentives earlier this year before the clearance started, then the '04 are likely to have it sooner rather than later. The automakers want to give the '04 a trial period to see how they move without incentives. But they won't wait long, maybe only a month.
consumers fuel importance stay weigh
Consumers are going to increasingly weigh the importance of fuel efficiency. But if they need, in their minds, an SUV, they are going to find a way to stay in that vehicle. They'll still look for big engines, towing capacity, cargo space.
low million rate sales third vehicles week
We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.
seeing slowing sort
We're sort of seeing an orchestrated slowing of the economy. But what we're not seeing is a slamming on the brakes.
best case coming continue half incentives lose maintain market scenario support
I think the incentives are going to continue to be necessary. If you don't play the incentive game, you'll lose market share. At least in the first half of the year, even in the best case scenario you're just coming out of the recession, you'll need the support of incentives to maintain sales.
avoid compound decisions gloss hard might money needs problems short spending term turn
They might want to (pay more) in the short term to avoid a strike. But if they're spending money now to gloss over the hard decisions that Delphi needs to make, they're only going to compound their problems when their turn comes up.
high last lower problem sales
At least some of the problem is the artificially high sales last year, which is making this year's sales look a lot lower than they should.