Bill O'Grady
Bill O'Grady
begin gas middle past peak point prices
Natural-gas prices peak in about the middle of December. That's because once you get past that point you begin to get a better feel for the idea that you're probably going to have enough gas to get through the season.
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It's in Hashimoto's best interest not to show his cards, ... but others vying for office can be bolder.
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Crude oil is the least of our worries. There is ample supply in storage and the government will tap the SPR, because this is what it is there for. They released supply last year when Hurricane Ivan struck the region.
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The government has got to come up with a way in funding itself.
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You have to have the world start doing better (before commodities prices correct), and the Asian crisis is starting to look a lot like what Latin America went through in the 1980s. It took them almost a decade to get their problems fixed.
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This is an election year and we're already deep into the silly season. The government has to figure out what it wants to do.
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The storm has moved over Florida, so we know for sure that it's not going to damage any energy facilities. The weather is still mild so heating demand has yet to pick up. The primary trend is still lower.
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The primary support factor today is the lift in crude. You also could be seeing more aggressive buying in heating oil.
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Natural gas production is still constrained as a result of the hurricanes. Refinery capacity is constrained for the same reason. Europe has been cold as well, which could limit heating oil imports.
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Natural gas is the real worry. Unfortunately we can't import the missing production. This is largely a domestic market.
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It's kind of the first good news that we've had on the economy all week. It's a good number. But the problem with the number is it's really not indicative of the national number. It's the East Coast that's really suffering.
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If the Nigeria news was happening alone it would do nothing to the market, but together with the risk of Iranian sanctions it takes on a greater importance.
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Gasoline consumption fell. That suggests one of two things. First is the economy in worse shape than we thought or the high oil prices are starting to be affected by demand destruction.
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When you got over $3, you did see behavior change. That does seem to be the magic number, $3 to $3.50.